Or we could simply ignore skipped manual jobs

app/models/concerns/has_status.rb

@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ module HasStatus
 
       deduce_status = "(CASE
         WHEN (#{builds})=(#{created}) THEN 'created'
-        WHEN (#{builds})=(#{skipped}) THEN 'success'
+        WHEN (#{builds})=(#{skipped}) THEN 'skipped'
         WHEN (#{builds})=(#{success})+(#{ignored})+(#{skipped}) THEN 'success'
         WHEN (#{builds})=(#{created})+(#{pending})+(#{skipped}) THEN 'pending'
         WHEN (#{builds})=(#{canceled})+(#{success})+(#{ignored})+(#{skipped}) THEN 'canceled'

app/services/ci/process_pipeline_service.rb

@@ -61,7 +61,12 @@ module Ci
     end
 
     def status_for_prior_stages(index)
-      pipeline.builds.where('stage_idx < ?', index).latest.status || 'success'
+      quoted_when = pipeline.builds.connection.quote_column_name('when')
+      pipeline.builds.
+        where('stage_idx < ?', index).
+        # We want to ignore skipped manual jobs
+        where("#{quoted_when} <> ? OR status <> ?", 'manual', 'skipped').
+        latest.status || 'success'
     end
 
     def stage_indexes_of_created_builds